That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Middlesbrough vs Swansea, Saturday 16:00 CET
Middlesbrough will go into Saturday's Championship match against fifteenth-placed Swansea just six points off the playoff positions. And although the fans are dreaming six rounds before the end of the season about promotion to the top tier, Middlesbrough have some big hurdles ahead of them. The main one is their current crop of injured players, which numbers a dozen.
And that includes three of their best defenders in Dael Fry, Rav van den Berg and Paddy McNair, skilful defensive midfielder Hayden Hackney and goalscoring wingers Marcus Forss and Riley McGree. These are all players who would be very useful to the team right now. Their current six-game streak without a loss certainly doesn't suggest a crisis at first glance but a closer look reveals that they haven't always been as dominant as their results suggest.
Moreover, weekend opponents Swansea entered a new era at the beginning of the year, capped by the arrival of English coach Luke Williams. Under his leadership, the team have already played 14 league games, during which Williams quickly managed to improve the side offensively. The Welsh side is playing the highest defensive line in the league and has the seventh-best attack in terms of expected goals (xG) created.
In the final third, Williams has limited crosses and Swansea are now creating a huge number of shooting opportunities with passes into the box and back passes from the cutback zones. Against a recently shaky home defence led by goalkeeper Seny Dieng, they should get into opportunities again and may well be eyeing some points at the Riverside Stadium.
Sunderland vs Bristol City, Saturday 16:00 CET
We have one more match to look at in the middle of the Championship table, where two direct neighbours in the standings will face off. The current situation at Sunderland is very bleak. After the sacking of coach Michael Beale, who was in charge for only two months, Mike Dodds took over the reins temporarily. However, under his supervision, the club have lost seven out of nine matches and won only once.
In contrast, Bristol's performances have been on an upward trend. In the middle of last month, the team from the South West played a competitive match with fifth-placed West Bromwich, then they beat third-placed Leicester and added three more points at the weekend by keeping a dangerous Plymouth attack at bay. If form is the main criterion, Bristol look like a good bet against Sunderland.
In the medium term, Sunderland's defence allows their opponents a relatively high number of dangerous chances, while Bristol have been the seventh-best defence in terms of xG allowed since Christmas. In attack, they are one of the league's worst teams, but they are variable in the final third. Moreover, they have only lost once in their past seven visits to the Stadium of Light.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg, Sunday 15:00 CET
Although both these teams are not directly involved in the fight to stay up in Ligue 1, only six points currently separate them from the relegation zone and neither of them will therefore want to slip any further down the table. The bookmakers have the home team as favourites, but the data suggests that it should be an even contest at the very least.
A better understanding of their current performances is provided by the expected points metric. This takes into account the quality of chances conceded and created and shows that both sides should have scored the same number of points since December. Strasbourg coach Patrick Vieira led his team to a surprising but well-deserved 2-0 win over Rennes at the weekend, and he also managed to solve a midfield problem a week earlier. He decided to replace injured defensive midfielder Ibrahim Sissoko with Andrey Santos in an important position, and it turned out to be a smart move.
Still only 19 years old, the youngster on loan from Chelsea had played only 33 minutes in Ligue 1, but in the last two games he not only made the starting lineup but also lasted the full 90, during which he was excellent. He stopped a huge number of promising opportunities with his defensive interventions and had a staggering 81% success rate when actively taking possession of the ball.
In addition, he made a number of very clever passes and was one of the most fouled players on the pitch thanks to his clever movement. To some extent, he could therefore replace his equally young teammate (and another Chelsea loanee) Angelo, who has quietly become one of the most creative players in the French top flight but is likely to miss his fifth consecutive game due to an injury.
Vieira is likely to enter the match looking to take advantage of the opponent's active pressing in the higher midfield and will be looking to threaten immediately after winning the ball from breakaway situations, one of Strasbourg's strengths. On the other hand, Toulouse allow their opponents a really high number of dangerous chances from quick counterattacks while only four other Ligue 1 teams have scored more goals from breakaways than Strasbourg. You wouldn't bet against the visitors getting something from this one.
