Match News and Current Form
New Wallabies head coach Les Kiss and his team had to face an unexpected but not unfamiliar challenge last week when new starter Miles Amatosero was sent off before half-time for dangerous contact on Warner Dearns. The Wallabies were ahead 14-7 at that point of the match and never let Japan turn their one-man advantage into a lead, drawing praise from Kiss who complimented his players and staff for remaining “calm and collected” in oppressively hot conditions. It was the first time in 14 games the Wallabies enjoyed back-to-back wins, and with things set to get tougher against their three Rugby Championship opponents later this year, there’s still plenty of room for improvement with nine matches remaining in 2026.
But with last weekend’s game having taken a lot out of his players physically, Kiss did not need a second invitation to make eight changes to his side, primarily in the forward pack where only Josh Nasser and captain Harry Wilson retain their places. Charlie Cale gets his first start as blindside flanker with Carlo Tizzano on the opposite end, whilst Lukhan Salakaia-Loto and Lachlan Shaw pack into the second row. Declan Meredith returns to flyhalf as one of two alterations to the backs, with Isaac Henry stepping in as starting centre.
Japan are searching for their second win of the year having opened 2026 up with an impressive 27-10 win over Italy and have plenty of points to prove after last week’s defeat saw them fall below both Wales and Italy to number 12 in the World Rugby rankings. They can reclaim tenth place with a victory of 1-15 points here and even ninth spot with a much less likely 16+ point win, but more important for Jones will be getting that elusive victory over his former employers as Japan builds towards November’s Nations Championship northern series and the 2027 World Cup down under.
The bulk of Eddie Jones’ five changes have been in the backs, with Waseda University's Yoshitaka Yazaki coming in as starting right wing and joining fellow uni student Ryunosuke Ito, who retains his position at number ten. There will be a third and fourth international cap respectively for inside centre Shunsuke Uenobo and left winger Haruto Kida, whilst Tiennan Costley (back rower) and Harry Hockings (lock) are the two other additions to the starting lineup.
Head-to-Head History
Australia have a perfect eight wins from eight against Japan, but the Brave Blossoms are getting closer than ever to a breakthrough win. All three meetings to take place in the 2020s had single-digit margins.
Hot Stats and Streaks
65% of the Wallabies’ tries scored in 2026 came before half-time.
The betting favourites won each of Australia’s last six matches.
Seven of the 11 tries Japan scored this year were in the first half.
Japan covered the spread in 75% of their matches played since the start of 2025.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Wallabies fullback Tom Wright will be looking to score a try in three consecutive internationals for the first time after dotting down against both Italy and Japan. Warner Dearns also has a try against Italy to his name this year and last week became Japan’s only player to score in two internationals this year.
Japan have no new major injuries, whilst Australia are missing Joseph-Aukuso Sua'ali'i to a minor hamstring strain and Miles Amatosero to suspension.
Click here to see the matchday squads for both teams.
Betting Analysis
With both teams scoring roughly two-thirds of their tries before half-time, backing the first half to be the highest scoring half could be a shrewd pick.
Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.
