With South Africa picking up the maximum five points from their final group match against Tonga on Sunday, Scotland now know a win over Ireland while also denying their opponents a losing bonus point is what’s needed to reach the quarter-finals.
It’s a tall order for Scotland and their recent record against Ireland offers little to suggest that Gregor Townsend’s (50) side can pull off a major World Cup upset in Paris. The last time Scotland beat Ireland was back in 2017, while the world’s number one-ranked side have won 16 consecutive Tests - including their most recent triumph over holders South Africa.
Despite Ireland’s imperious form and a run of eight consecutive wins against Scotland, Townsend’s men are ranked among the top-five nations in the world for a reason and they remain a significant threat to any side on their day.
Wins over England, Wales and France this year are proof of Scotland’s pedigree on the biggest stage, so they’ll be full of belief when they take to the field on Saturday evening.
Coping with Ireland’s all-round game
Ireland have established themselves as the best team in the world after a stellar couple of years, suffering just two defeats in their last 30 Tests dating back to early 2021. They are a well-oiled machine and play with a clear identity no matter who Andy Farrell (48) decides to throw into the action.
The Irish pack were superb against South Africa with the likes of Tadhg Furlong (30) and Josh van der Flier (30) particularly impressive at the breakdown, while the backs were just as solid in defence - epitomised by James Lowe’s (31) expert piece of manhandling to deny Eben Etzebeth (31).
Having scored 20 tries in their opening two matches against Romania and Tonga, Ireland had to show a different side of their game against South Africa in a bruising battle. Despite being under pressure for large spells of the contest, they remained patient and were clinical with the limited ball they had in the Springboks’ 22.
The speed and dynamism of Ireland’s attack - spearheaded by arguably the tournament’s stand-out player so far, Bundee Aki (33) - will be difficult to stop for Scotland. In addition to their brilliant ball-carriers, Johnny Sexton’s (38) decision-making at fly half remains just as critical to Ireland’s success, as seen through his vintage loop and dummy against South Africa to create Mack Hansen’s (25) match-winning try.
Therefore, to stand any chance of stopping a relentless Irish attack, Scotland need to be perfect in all facets of their game, including at both the set-piece and the breakdown.
If a solid framework in defence can be built through the likes of Jack Dempsey (29) and captain Jamie Ritchie (27), it will allow Scotland to play with greater freedom with the ball in hand.
Townsend’s side will be sure to roll the dice in attack, and with maverick fly half Finn Russell (31) in the side, they are well-equipped to do so. Scotland tend to struggle in attritional matches as seen by their opening defeat against the Springboks, but when games are fast-paced and open, there are few sides in world rugby that are as quick and incisive with their passing as the Scots.
Attack back to its scintillating best
There were several positives for Scotland in their win over Romania, with Darcy Graham (26) instrumental to everything good about their performance. The Edinburgh winger ran in four tries in a dazzling display, providing a timely reminder that Scotland have the firepower to overrun any defence.
Captain Grant Gilchrist (33) sang Graham’s praises after the match, praising the winger’s “truly world-class” finishes, while Graham’s former teammate Greg Laidlaw described him as “one of the best in the world for stepping in tight spaces”.
The winger’s return to form after an uncharacteristic mistake against the Springboks where he ignored Duhan van der Merwe (28) with a free run to the line is crucial for the Scots and offers further hope that anything is possible.
Admittedly, Ireland are a completely different beast to Romania and Graham won’t be afforded anywhere near the same amount of space as he was against a beleaguered defence. However, with a tally of 24 tries in just 38 Tests, Graham’s return is comparable with the very best wingers in the sport, so Ireland face a stern test to keep him quiet.
What’s more, Chris Harris (32) delivered a ferocious performance in both attack and defence, giving Townsend a tough call to make at centre ahead of the weekend. The attack-minded Huw Jones is likely to come back into the team, but if Scotland want a little more defensive nous, Harris offers an excellent option from the start.
Is rest or momentum more important?
By the time Ireland take to the field, Farrell’s men will have had a two-week break following their win over South Africa. After such a brutally physical encounter, the rest came at a perfect juncture for Ireland, giving them an extra few days to recover ahead of Saturday’s showdown.
While rustiness is always a risk during a brief hiatus in the middle of a tournament, Ireland are an experienced outfit and can use the extra time on the training pitch to their advantage. This is a sentiment shared by Irish back row Caelan Doris (25), who described the timing of the down week as “pretty optimal”.
As for Scotland, heavy victories over Tonga and Romania give them plenty of confidence and momentum heading into the match, with several of their key players looking sharp and ready. Townsend was also able to rest the likes of Ritchie, Russell and van der Merwe last time out, meaning they will be chomping at the bit to get stuck into Ireland.
Ultimately, both sides are in excellent shape as preparations for the crunch clash continue to ramp up. Ireland may be the heavy favourites, but Scotland have the ability to trouble anyone with their fast-paced game, so buckle up and brace yourself for a do-or-die World Cup classic.
