Match News and Current Form
Australia head back home for one of their toughest challenges of 2026 after a thrilling two-game tour of Argentina that saw them finish one-point shy of sweeping an away series in Argentina for the first time. The second test 28-28 draw in Mendoza nonetheless secured their first unbeaten tour of Argentina, but it confirmed that they appear a long way away from a significant climb back up the World Rugby rankings. They kept eighth-ranked Argentina from taking their number seven spot, and having been pushed all the way in their early August trip to ninth-ranked Japan (W 35-32), they certainly belong in the bottom half of the top-ten nations at the moment.
Since their famous win at Ellis Park in last year’s Rugby Championship, Australia are on an eight-game losing streak against higher-ranked nations, three of them on home soil including Nations Championship losses to Ireland (31-33) and France (33-48) this year. Those losses were prior to the fresh tenure of head coach Les Kiss, who will be hoping he can join recent colleagues such Robbie Deans, Michael Cheika and Dave Rennie by winning his first game against South Africa. Kiss' headline change for this match sees Joseph Suaalii start on the wing for the first time in his international career, having previously only occupied the number 13 shirt.
This caps off a very busy mid-year period for the Springboks, for whom this will be their final match until the Northern Hemisphere series of the Nations Championship commences on the first Saturday of November. There’s no more questioning which nation is currently the best in the world after South Africa overcame a second-half fadeout in their first test defeat to defeat the All Blacks 3-1. After conceding more than 20 points in seven of their last nine matches, head coach Rassie Erasmus will probably want to see a sharper defensive performance here against a team averaging a very healthy 37 points per game in 2026 albeit against weaker opposition.
After a gruelling four-week schedule that included a trip across the world to Baltimore, USA, Erasmus has understandably turned to a second-string squad for this trip, a similar one to the side that won a scrappy game in Argentina (17-10) prior to the All Blacks tour. Erasmus candidly forecasted similar problems here, saying this team “probably isn’t going to fire from the start” and that there could be “combination hiccups” and “a non-cohesive performance” from this new side. Andre Esterhuizen will captain the Springboks for the first time, leading out a side that only has lock Eben Etzebeth and winger Ethan Hooker from their last game.
Head-to-Head History
South Africa now have a 5-4 record over Australia this decade after winning four of the last five meetings, including by 18-point and 26-point margins in their last two trips down under.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Eight of Australia’s last nine games finished over the main total points handicap.
Australia won the race to ten points in seven of their last eight matches.
South Africa conceded the opening try in four of their last five games but went on to win three of them.
South Africa were level or ahead at half-time in each of their last 12 matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Max Jorgensen will relish this test after tries against both Japan and Argentina, particularly as he dotted down in both games against the Springboks last year. South Africa’s Edwill van der Merwe brings sparkling tryscoring form into this match with tries in four of his last appearances for the Sharks or Springboks.
Australia had to remove Charlie Cale from their squad due to injury, whilst South Africa were always going to make a whole host of changes for this match.
Click here to see the latest news on the match.
Betting Analysis
Australia continue to be involved in high scoring affairs, even piling on the points in losses against elite opposition, so we wouldn’t be surprised if this one finishes with over 58.5 total points.
Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.
