Opta predicts Man City 84% likely to win Premier League despite close standings

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Opta predicts Man City 84% likely to win Premier League despite close standings

Manchester City lifting the Premier League trophy last season
Manchester City lifting the Premier League trophy last seasonReuters
Manchester City have one Premier League point less than they had after 12 games last season but according to data analysts Opta are overwhelming favourites to claim a fourth successive title.

The number crunchers at Opta Analyst have predicted where each of the 20 teams will finish the season based on 10,000 simulations of the 2023-24 campaign, based on form and remaining fixtures, fed into a supercomputer.

And the outlook looks good for Pep Guardiola's side and worryingly grim for Burnley.

City, according to Opta Analyst, have an 84.6% probability of lifting the trophy again with Liverpool given only a 9.1% chance and last season's runners-up Arsenal on 5.6%.

Back-to-back defeats for Tottenham Hotspur mean that, according to Opta, their title hopes are virtually non-existent at 0.3%, the same as Aston Villa.

Manchester United, currently in sixth place, are predicted to finish seventh and only have a 5.9% chance of finishing in the top four, although that has risen slightly of late.

Newcastle United have a 25% chance of a second-successive top-four finish while Chelsea are predicted to finish ninth.

Opta's calculations also suggest that the bottom three, currently the three clubs promoted last season, will all go down with 20th-placed Burnley given an 86.9% chance of relegation.

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