Transfers analysis: Rice among the world's best, Cvancara could shine in Germany

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Transfers analysis: Rice among the world's best, Cvancara could shine in Germany
Declan Rice at an England national team training session
Declan Rice at an England national team training sessionProfimedia
One of the most drawn-out transfer sagas of this summer is finally over. The tug-of-war for the services of Declan Rice (24) was won by Arsenal, who reportedly paid a whopping £105million to West Ham for his services, making him the most expensive Englishman in Premier League history.

Also, another Czech footballer is moving to the Bundesliga. After winning the title with Sparta Prague, Tomas Cvancara (22) is heading to Borussia Monchengladbach for his next challenge.

What does data analytics have to say about both transfers?

Right from the start, it has to be said that in Declan Rice, Arsenal are getting a player who can do almost everything in his position, and all at a high level, too.

But by far the most striking thing about him as a number six or eight is his ability to win a high number of balls and then advance with his runs to where his team has a better chance of scoring. In terms of the combination of these two skills, he is without a doubt one of the best players in the world.

Although the above may tempt you to think that he is an aggressive player, he is much more of a calm force in the middle of the pitch capable of waiting for the right moment.

What Rice really excels at is reading the game and anticipating his opponent's next moves. He wins a high volume of balls by disrupting the opponent's passing game.

Declan Rice's numbers while at West Ham
Declan Rice's numbers while at West HamFlashscore

If he senses the right moment to win the ball, he is rarely wrong. In the last Premier League season, his success percentage in this was around the 82% mark. Only 2% of other central midfielders were better.

He also performs excellently in advanced data metrics that track how dangerous the areas he recovers the ball in are. In other words, he stops opponents' attacks in positions close to his own goal or in those that would lead to a big chance.

He is also greatly aided by his physical strength. Only Vitaly Janelt and Tyler Adams had a higher success rate in ground duels last season in the Premier League. 

He also ranks among the best players in the air. And with the quality of his performances, it's probably no surprise that he is also one of the central midfielders with the least number of fouls in the competition.

Selected Premier League players (season 22/23). X-axis = the extent to which a player's runs in his own third and in the middle of the field put the team in a better position to score, Y-axis = the percentage of successful tackles on the ground.
Selected Premier League players (season 22/23). X-axis = the extent to which a player's runs in his own third and in the middle of the field put the team in a better position to score, Y-axis = the percentage of successful tackles on the ground.Flashscore

As soon as Rice gets possession of the ball, he immediately applies his speed, dynamism and power to surge forward. He is amongst the absolute best not only in the number of progressive runs but also in terms of their value, meaning how much they increase his team's chances of scoring.

This is especially true in his own third of the pitch and in the middle of the pitch but he is also dangerous when he arrives in the attacking third as well.

He only sporadically ends up inside the penalty area, preferring to move the ball to better positions by passing, especially from the intermediate spaces or the central area near the opponent's penalty area, the so-called 'zone 14'.

Many accuse Rice of opting for rather simple solutions when playing the ball but it must be remembered that West Ham are not exactly one of the teams that allow a high level of creativity.

Arsenal, on the other hand, are a unit with one of the highest ball possessions per game, passes per sequence and attacking intensity. Thus, it will be interesting to see if this adds another dimension to Rice's game.

In any case, with his arrival, the club have gained a player capable of forming both a strong duo with Thomas Partey or Jorginho in the middle of the park, as well as filling the role of a lone six in the event of their departure.

Tomas Cvancara: A rising Czech star

The young Czech striker Tomas Cvancara was one of the key figures in Sparta Prague's title-winning campaign in the last FORTUNA:LIGA season.

While his fellow national team member Jan Kuchta played the role of the most advanced striker in a 3-4-2-1 formation, Cvancara played as the right-sided number ten and, therefore, dropped a little deeper and wider on the pitch.

His final product, however, certainly did not suffer from this. Thanks to his good choice of space, he was regularly able to get shots from central areas inside the opponent's penalty area, from where he made almost 70% of his attempts on target.

Among the other wingers/tens in the league, he ended the season as the leader in the expected goals metric - which is still the best indicator of how many quality chances a player is producing.

What's more, because he is also a very active shooter, with an average of almost three shots per game, he ended up scoring 12 times in 1572 minutes of play. On top of that, he showed that he has no problem finishing with both feet and his head.

Cvancara's shot map from the 22/23 FORTUNA:LIGA season
Cvancara's shot map from the 22/23 FORTUNA:LIGA seasonFlashscore

The ability to produce dangerous attempts from the air is another one of his strengths. Although the hallmark of the Czech top league is its physicality, Cvancara was able to produce a higher-than-average number of headers against power-based defenders and finish them off well.

During the season, he excelled in an advanced data model measuring the extent to which a player can find good spaces and angles to run into and take the ball in spaces where there is an immediate threat on goal. He was clearly the best player in his position and performed well even in comparison with out-and-out strikers - i.e. players who operate a few metres higher up the pitch than him.

Selected FORTUNA:LIGA wingers/tens (season 22/23). X-axis = number of shots per game, Y-axis = expected goals per 90 minutes of play, adjusted for penalties.
Selected FORTUNA:LIGA wingers/tens (season 22/23). X-axis = number of shots per game, Y-axis = expected goals per 90 minutes of play, adjusted for penalties.Flashscore

Data analysis of passing shows that Cvancara found his most valuable opportunities after receiving balls centrally from the side, from deep, or after a diagonal pass from the midfield. However, he is also good at finding short passes inside the penalty area or back passes, which are generally among the most effective and used a lot by the leading European teams.

Borussia Monchengladbach are a team with a fluid offensive system, which Cvancara should fit in well due to his complexity as an attacker. Assuming he continues to work on his game and avoids injuries at the start of his new challenge, he has all the potential to make it in one of the world's top five leagues.

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