Undeniably, some big-time staples of college football will get a shot at a playoff berth and pursue a deep title run. Some other schools hope to be relevant in their conferences and make it to the championship game to claim the conference trophy. And for some programs, the goal is much simpler: restore their reputation, climb out of the bottom, and become competitive again. The college football environment is extremely volatile – one recruiting class can change everything, just like losing a meaningful part of a team in the transfer portal can have a damaging impact.
That is what makes college football so unpredictable. The landscape can change dramatically from one year to the next. Coaches know that they must always be on the move. Creating innovative systems. Recruiting future superstars. Drawing new plays. Outsmarting the opponent. You stay behind; you lose. And every season, some teams rise to the occasion, while others fall back.
In 2025, UMass went 0-12, and due to no changes made in the offseason, there are no indications of the Minutemen making a comeback. But some other programs addressed their losing seasons and are due for a turnaround in 2026, just like some others face a challenge of keeping up and not falling behind.
Here are programs that are due to rise from the ashes, and programs that are on the verge of a fallout.
Risers
The Cowboys endured a dismal season last year, going 1-11 overall and 0-9 in the Big 12.
The school fired longtime head coach Mike Gundy, who spent 21 seasons in Stillwater. He left as the winningest coach in program history, owning a 170-90 record. However, his last notable success came in 2011, when he led Oklahoma State to a Big 12 championship.
The Cowboys have never made the CFP, and in recent years, the program had been trending toward a decline. After a poor start in 2025, the athletic department moved on from Gundy and hired Eric Morris.
Morris has already proven he’s capable of transforming a program.
In 2022, he was hired at North Texas and rebuilt the Mean Green into one of the country’s most explosive offensive teams. Then in 2024, UNT ranked third nationally in total offense. Last year, Morris guided the Mean Green to a historic 12-win season and an AAC championship-game appearance.
North Texas also earned its first national ranking in decades under Morris.
Now, he’s bringing his system to Oklahoma State—and he has brought some of his best talent with him. Morris brought in more than 60 transfers, highlighted by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the FBS in passing yards last season.
The Cowboys also added running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young. With the season on the brink, this team is trending upward, and expectations are sky-high.
If Morris can quickly install his system and get the most out of his new roster, Oklahoma State has a great chance to rebound in a major way this year.
2. LSU Tigers
Everybody knows that the Tigers are a football powerhouse always shooting for the national championship.
The school's history is full of trophies, big wins, and Heisman winners. Their last national title came in 2020 - also their first playoff appearance - when LSU achieved an undefeated 15-0 record, and Joe Burrow won the Heisman.
But since then, the Tigers have struggled to keep up with the best teams in the country. In the last five years, they went 42-24. In 2025, LSU was 3-5 in the SEC and 7-6 overall - the disappointing season cost former head coach Brian Kelly his job.
The school hired Lane Kiffin, who came to Baton Rouge from Oxford, where he led the Ole Miss Rebels to a historic 11-1 regular-season record. Now, he has been chosen to return LSU to its glory days and take the Tigers back to the playoffs after a six-year drought.
The program doesn’t have to start from the bottom, but it was nowhere close to where LSU expects to be.
Anything short of a deep postseason run would mean falling short of expectations.
Kiffin should have the tools to make the Tigers competitive and relevant again, both in the SEC and nationally.
He brought in quarterback Sam Leavitt, one of the top-rated players in the transfer portal, who starred at Arizona State before arriving in Baton Rouge. Overall, Kiffin assembled one of the nation’s top transfer portal classes, also adding star offensive tackle Jordan Seaton from Colorado and terrific edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen from Ole Miss.
With a brand-new coaching staff and tremendous talent at key positions, LSU is destined to be one of the biggest risers of the 2026 season.
Since 2021, Maryland has compiled a 31-32 record and produced three winning seasons. In 2021, 2022, and 2023, the Terrapins played in bowl games and won all three. However, the last two seasons have been a struggle. In both seasons, the program won just one game in the Big Ten and went 4-8 overall.
Head coach Mike Locksley is entering his eighth season and will be looking to make the team competitive again in the conference.
If you’re a true Maryland fan, you know how it goes: the Terrapins get off to a great start against weaker colleges, making it seem like this is finally the breakthrough season. Then comes the steep fall, and suddenly, the record doesn’t look nearly as good.
In 2025, Maryland won four straight games before losing its final eight contests. The Terrapins need more consistency, especially in the tough, close, toss-up games.
This year, the program has its biggest chance for redemption in years.
Maryland returns sophomore quarterback Malik Washington, who threw for 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns as a freshman. The Terrapins also retain 71% of their squad from last season, one of the highest marks in the country.
They brought in the No. 37 recruiting class in the country, featuring elite five-star pass rusher Zion Elee. With so much returning production and a promising young quarterback, Maryland has a real opportunity to turn things around. Terrapins, it’s time to return to a bowl game—and we believe this is the year
Fallout teams
North Texas is in a tough position.
Super-successful head coach Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State and took many of the roster’s best pieces with him. The Mean Green hired Neal Brown, who previously served as a special assistant to the head coach at Texas.
The program retained 32% of its 2025 roster, tied for 131st nationally and among the lowest percentages in the FBS. Brown essentially had to build a completely new roster.
It’s going to be a tough year for North Texas in the American Conference. The Mean Green open the season against the reigning national champions, the Indiana Hoosiers, before hosting UNLV, one of the better teams in the Mountain West.
After a thrilling 12-2 season that included a bowl victory over San Diego State, the Mean Green might struggle to even break even in 2026.
Quick turnarounds aren’t impossible, but most likely, it will take Brown a couple of years to lay the foundation, implement his systems, and bring in his own recruits. This year, the schedule includes several difficult road games, including trips to Indiana, Texas State, Navy, UTSA, and Tulane.
While North Texas should still have enough talent to win several conference games, it’s unlikely to repeat last season’s masterpiece.
In 2025, Duke did something nobody expected—the Blue Devils went 9-5 overall, took down No. 16 Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, and beat Arizona State in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl.
The program seemed to be on the right track. But after the season concluded, Duke started falling apart.
Quarterback Darian Mensah transferred to Miami, and the team lost its top wide receivers in Cooper Barkate, Que'Sean Brown, and Sahmir Hagans. Overall, the Blue Devils retain 49% of their 2025 roster, which ranks 77th in the FBS.
It’s not terrible, but it’s also not great, and it seems like other schools will emerge in the ACC to compete for the conference championship.
Most likely, Duke will still have a winning record and compete for a bowl bid, but replacing Mensah and other significant offensive pieces will make repeating last year’s success difficult.
Duke has a challenging schedule with games against Tulane, Illinois, Clemson, Miami, NC State, and Virginia, although several of those games are at home. If Duke can find consistent quarterback play and continue playing strong defense, the Blue Devils can finish 7-5 and reach another bowl game.
Compared to last year, however, this would be a dip in performance for Duke.
Vanderbilt was another team that achieved historic success in 2025. The Commodores went 10-3, played in the ReliaQuest Bowl, and recorded six wins against just two losses in the SEC. But matching that level of success after replacing quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Diego Pavia, while retaining just 38% of their offensive unit and 44% of their defense, will be a major challenge.
The schedule favors Vanderbilt early, as the program faces Austin Peay and Delaware, but a real test awaits later when the Commodores square off with Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida in conference play.
Most likely, the loss of so much offensive production will prevent the Commodores from reaching another double-digit-win season.
Five-star freshman playmaker Jared Curtis is set to replace Pavia, but he may need time to establish himself while facing some of the top teams in the country. Vanderbilt isn’t going to be horrible this season, but six victories might be its ceiling.
After riding the momentum of a historic 2025 campaign, the Commodores and their fanbase could experience a few disappointments in 2026.
