Aston Villa vs Bournemouth, Sunday 16:00 CET
At first glance, a loss for Astona Villa at home this weekend may seem a bold choice. Unai Emery's charges will have a huge motivation to defend the final Champions League spot, against the encroaching Spurs, who have a three-point deficit, but a game in hand and a two-week break due to their postponed clash with Manchester City - something that doesn't happen very often in the Premier League.
However, Aston Villa and their play this season are a shining example of how the loss of even one key player can disrupt the functioning of an entire team. A knee injury ended the season of French defensive midfielder Boubacar Kamara in the first half of February.
Until then, the team was hovering around 1.49 goals conceded per game, which was average in league comparison. However, in the nine games without Kamara, the team has allowed opponents chances at a rate of 1.97 xG, and this is the third worst result in the competition in this period. In contrast, Bournemouth is third best behind Arsenal and Manchester City with 1.18 xGa.
Villa have conceded 17 goals since that pivotal injury, the same number as Luton and also Brentford, a team plagued by a never-ending run of injuries to their defensive mainstays. Only Sheffield United's players are worse off, having fished the ball out of the net 21 times. Kamara's injury is of course not the only reason for the poor defensive performances, but certainly one of the most significant.
The team is struggling to control the midfield, where they are only winning 44% of the battles for deflected balls without their shield midfielder. They are at the tail-end of the Premier League statistics in this metric, roughly alongside Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest, West Ham and more recently Manchester United. Against Bournemouth, it certainly doesn't help that Brazilian Douglas Luiz, another key figure in Emery's midfield, is serving the second game of his suspension for 10 yellow cards.
The visitors, on the other hand, have been one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League for many months now and can once again rely on the services of the recovered stopper Marcos Senesi, who managed the Cherries' draw against United with two assists in his first game back.
How about striker Dominic Solanke? He has given consistently great performances all season and will be a big threat again.
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Kralove, Sunday 15:00 CET
The last two rounds of the Fortuna:Liga regular season are left and the battle for the title in the six-team group promises to be a very attractive spectacle in April. The teams between fifth and 10th are separated by only five points, and both Mlada Boleslav and Slovacko are not exactly in dazzling form. On the other hand, the ninth-placed Hradec Kralove are in good shape, as they take on seventh-placed Liberec.
Hradec is not only picking up points in the spring part of the season, but its progress through the table is also matched by its performances. According to the metric of expected points, which takes into account the quality of the goal scoring opportunities created and allowed, the Easterners should have collected the fifth highest number of points in this period. Only the usual heavyweights in the form of Slavia, Sparta, Plzen and also Banik Ostrava are better off.
The credit for the improved performance goes not only to the new coach David Horejs, under whose leadership the team lost only one of the six matches to Sparta and gained a total of 13 points, but also to Ladislav Krejci.
The former national team player has found his love for the game again and is one of the best wing-backs in the competition. Alongside this, an absolute revelation is the performances of the 19-year-old stopper Karel Spacil, who was still playing in the regional championship in Hana 18 months ago.
After the arrival of the ambitious owner Ondrej Kania, there is also a good mood in the camp of the home team, who will definitely be an unpleasant opponent for Hradec even in terms of current performance. However, at least a division of points would not be a surprise.
Frankfurt vs Augsburg, Friday 20:30 CET
Friday's match will be a direct duel for both teams for the sixth position ensuring qualification for the European Conference League. Frankfurt currently occupies this position, but Augsburg will be within a point of their opponents if they win. Visiting coach Jess Thorup can take inspiration from their first game together. Augsburg dominated the duel in early December with a 2-1 result, visibly controlling the game and creating better shooting positions.
Although his roster currently has seven players out injured, in most cases these are absences that can be replaced quite well. Frankfurt, on the other hand, will miss their key stopper Tutu due to a card penalty and another important defensive link Ellyes Skhiri reports calf problems If he doesn't start, it will be the second significant weakening for the team at a key position.
In terms of playing style and the vast majority of important data metrics, these are two very evenly matched squads. The road to eventual success could lead through the air for Augsburg. Eintracht have the worst defensive header success rate in the Bundesliga, which is reflected not only in allowing dangerous chances from standard situations, but also from centres after successive attacks. And it is these that Augsburg have mastered brilliantly, creating the greatest volume of chances through them.
